Eco Ltd has carried out the mid-term evaluation of a full-scale GEF project on energy efficiency in the municipal heating and hot water sector in Armenia for a multilateral development organisation. Building on our knowledge of the heating sector in the region, Eco’s expert carried out an in-depth analysis of the project design, and implementation to date, and identified lessons learnt and developed recommendations to enhance the effectiveness of the project. This work contributes to our growing reputation in high quality and hassle-free project evaluations.

During the Soviet era 55% of apartments in Armenia were heated through district heating systems covering over 30% of housing stock and 90% of apartment buildings. Armenian district heating systems included both heat-only boilers and combined heat and power plants. In the early 1990s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, district heating coverage decreased by over 75%. This was primarily a result of the economic blockade imposed by Azerbaijan and Turkey in the war over the Nagorno-Karabakh, and exacerbated by sabotage and separatist strife in Georgia in 1993 that disrupted the remaining gas supply route. As a result the government was forced to ration heat and electricity, primary fuel and electricity prices rose substantially, equipment and O&M costs increased, the socio-economic well being of the population fell, and the heat service fee collection rate dropped to around 20% of supplied heat (Ghukasyan & Pasoyan, 2007).

The mid-term evaluation aimed to contribute to ensuring proper documentation of lessons learned by assessing the relevance of the project, project performance (progress in terms of effectiveness, efficiency and timeliness), management arrangements focused on project implementation, and overall success of the project with regard to impact, sustainability, and contribution to capacity development, and makes recommendations for further development of the project.

The approach used for the evaluation was based on the results-oriented ‘outcome evaluation’ approach within the framework of Results Based Management. The evaluation focuses on the project’s contribution to the desired Agency outcome through the project outputs, and possible improvements that could be made to increase the performance of delivery of outputs and ultimately the desired outcomes.

Broadly, the analysis indicated that:

• The main directions of the project should be maintained with a number of minor reorientations on activities and approaches.
• The ‘heat law’ development is of primary importance, and should receive the majority of policy development effort, with the activities on other legislative issues being addressed as and when opportunities arise.

Additional efforts by the project team to forge cooperative networks with key stakeholders, particularly in government, and to address the sustainability strategy were recommended.

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